The New Disruption Playbook – Part 7 –
conditions on the day can turn a win into a loss
Play 7. Freight procurement: navigating volatility with strategy
In football, even the best playbook can fall apart if the weather changes mid‑game. The same is true in global logistics. Freight procurement teams are operating in a climate where volatility is not an exception – it is the operating environment. Tariffs still matter, but today’s price movement is increasingly shaped by a broader set of shocks: geopolitical risk (including Red Sea routing decisions), seasonal demand distortion (pre‑Lunar New Year), and carriers’ increasingly sophisticated capacity discipline.
The last decade proved that rates can no longer be treated as a linear function of demand. The post‑2020 era embedded a new reality: carriers can (and do) use levers such as blank sailings and selective network deployment to defend yield, even when demand softens. This is not theoretical: in late January 2026, Drewry noted a marked increase in announced blank sailings for February versus January, as demand remained weak heading into Chinese New Year closures.
At the same time, the Red Sea / Suez question is no longer binary (“open” or “closed”). What we are seeing is trial, partial return – then reversals – driven by evolving threat perception. Multiple sources describe carriers testing Suez transits, while others revert to Cape routing due to renewed uncertainty.
Between 2015 and 2019, the World Container Index (WCI) and related freight indices such as the Containerized Freight Index (CFI) and Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) showed relatively stable and moderate fluctuations compared to the extreme volatility seen in recent years.
The WCI, which tracks average spot rates across major global routes, remained largely within a $1,000–$1,800 per 40-foot container range from 2015 to 2019. Volatility was present but driven more by seasonal demand cycles and fuel cost changes than by geopolitical or systemic disruptions.
This contrasts sharply with the post-2020 period, where rates surged to over $10,000 during the COVID-19 pandemic and have since experienced sharp swings due to events like the Red Sea crisis, Panama Canal drought, and tariff-driven trade shifts.
As of late January 2026, Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) decreased 5% week‑on‑week to $2,107 per 40‑foot container (FEU equivalent), extending a third consecutive weekly decline.
The attempted early‑season firming has not held. Drewry attributes the continued softening primarily to weaker demand ahead of Chinese New Year closures, with carriers responding by increasing capacity discipline: 63 blank sailings announced for February vs 27 in January.
These swings are not anomalies – they’re the new normal. And they coincide with structural changes in the industry:
- Market Consolidation: Ten years ago, ~20 carriers dominated global container shipping. Today, the top 10 carriers control 84.6% of global TEU capacity, with MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO, and Hapag-Lloyd leading.
- Shift from “Set-and-Forget” to Mixed Models: Annual tenders with fixed rates are being replaced by hybrid models combining indexed pricing, fixed-rate components, and reserved volumes for spot flexibility.
- Advanced Analytics: Stochastic modelling and scenario planning are now mainstream, replacing simplistic “price × quantity” calculations. These tools allow procurement teams to simulate thousands of demand and rate scenarios, reducing cost exposure and improving resilience.
- Risk Mitigation for Both Parties: Modern contracts aim to minimise reneging of rates and container rollovers while avoiding extreme exposure to market swings—yet still outperform benchmarks.
Ocean and air freight rates are shaped by a complex mix of geopolitical, environmental, and economic factors.
To manage this volatility, freight procurement must evolve from transactional buying to strategic orchestration. That means:
- Shorter freight sourcing cycles
- Formal empanelment of carriers and 3PLs Building a vetted panel of logistics partners ensures faster response times and more reliable service when disruptions hit.
- Index-based pricing
Linking rates to trusted indices (like SCFI or WCI) helps share risk between shippers and carriers, and reduces the need for constant renegotiation.
- Controlled access to spot markets
- Closer partnerships with 3PLs
Unlike shipping lines, 3PLs offer flexibility, multimodal options, and integrated visibility tools. They’re increasingly acting as the quarterback of resilient freight strategies.
- Use of freight-specific sourcing tools
- Category-specific sourcing templates
- Advanced analytics capabilities
- Tool selection that supports both sides
Annual tenders may no longer be fit for purpose. Quarterly or even monthly reviews can help teams stay aligned with market conditions.
This is governance, not more work. A quarterly rhythm for market review, index checks, and carrier performance prevents you from being forced into ad hoc renegotiations in the worst week of the year.
Spot buying can be useful but only when governed by clear thresholds and escalation paths.
Platforms like Shiply and Xeneta provide real-time benchmarks, predictive analytics, and corridor-specific insights that help procurement teams make smarter, faster decisions.
Procurement suites like Coupa and Zycus offer tailored templates for ocean freight, enabling more structured and efficient sourcing events. Complex sourcing tools offer the flexibility and depth needed for international logistics sourcing.
Tools like Power BI, Python, and KNIME – when used by experienced analysts, augmented by Ai or not – can uncover trends, model scenarios, and support faster decision-making.
The best tools reduce administrative burden for both shippers and carriers, accelerating the sourcing process while improving transparency and trust.
These strategies aren’t just about cost, they’re about control. In a world where freight disruptions can derail even the best-laid supply chain plans, procurement must lead with agility, data, and strong partnerships.
Summary considerations for effective tariff mitigation
Hopefully, the above play – along with the six other plays outlined in this series – helps you think through the position your organization is in, and you can start to navigate a way forward. Without knowing the nature of your business, we offer the following summary of the analysis and actions you might consider:
- Make a thorough impact assessment to identify the business units, products, and supply chains most affected by tariffs.
- Work up scenarios of different possible plays you could make. Two powerful words can help a great deal. So, don’t be afraid to ask: What if?
- Like sport, there is a lot of data to help us understand performance and make decisions. Make sure you are capturing new trade-related data and feeding it into your plans.
- The best teams can change the way they play to suit the environment they are in. Agility and adaptation are key to survival. Always have been, always will be.
- Play by the rules. Compliance is essential. Make sure you are fully informed of changes to customs laws and other regulations.
Proactively considering the strategies and ideas covered in The New Tariff Playbook should prove valuable. And, of course, our procurement and supply chain professionals are always close at hand to assist at any time.
You can find other installments in the links below.
The New Disruption Playbook Series:
Play 1 on Diversification
Play 2 on Collaboration
Play 3 on Contracts
Play 4 on Innovation
Play 5 on Sourcing
Play 6 on Capacity
Play 7 on Freight Procurement
